Sony will try to stuff blu-ray down peoples throats but the fact is the PS3 will be too expensive. From what I've seen of the Hi Def game content the Ps3 can produce (Assassins Creed, etc at E3)it's obvious the PS3 is about half a generation ahead of the 360 and whatever Nintendo bring out with regards power ... but at what cost? 360 will have been out a year by the time Sony bring their console to market and it will make ALL the difference. M$ just did what Sony did with the PS2.
Anyway to answer the question, any format war previously has been decided by the format the porn industry chooses, and HD-DVD being the cheaper to mass produce at the mo they will probably go for that. Blu-ray is good, don't get me wrong, it's just the market isn't ready for it yet.