Shock Horror:

Bill Gates might just have a vested interest in seeing CDs and DVDs becoming obsolete -while other mediums utilising Microsoft technology flourish. Whether it will happen is another matter.

I think that for anything to stand a chance of being successful it needs two things.

Firstly it needs to be backwards compatible.

If we're to have "media-centres" that can read off older DVD and CD then incorporate them into a terabyte worth of memory, then there's a chance. If this is offering just a better quality and you have to re-purchase what you have, then I'm not convinced.

Blu Ray and HD DVD, or whatever the format is, will suffer while there are sufficient numbers of vested interests on either sides of the fence (i.e. Film Studios)

The battle will then make other technology more attractive. But there are no guarantees of Microsoft holding the one means of disseminating film and Music via the internet. Although as with the web browser it won't stop them trying.

To explain the second point; I for one have resisted the temptation to sign up to broadband at home - I don't need it. But I do subscribe to sattelite.

If it wasn't for the lure of football on sattelite, I doubt whether I'd pay up for that either. My point is that without a tangible draw where you can't get something you really want without using that medium/means, it's going to be hard to persuade people to sign up.

In short, I'm very dubious.

I'm afraid bill gates et al missed the point again...

just like they did when they said there will be computers and internet in every home i the world...

the real point is, a *very large* part of the world is just 'trying to afford the next meal' or scraping a living in some desert somewhere...

one rung up, other people are just too busy to get their rent paid, and cant be bothered with luxuries like fancy TVs etc.. 'computer'??? what the hell would I need that for???

the majority of people dont have a clue about technology, they just want to get a CD or DVD, chuck it in the box, to try to get some escape from 'real life'... and the only way a company can sell to these people, is make it as easy, robust and cheap as the above..

and you know computers are just not like this!...

I agree Bill Gates certainly has a vested interest and that many people are not in positions to have computers and resist the lure of satellite tv etc. However, I do think he could well be onto something.

What he describes won't happen tomorrow but it WILL happen. It'll start off small and then tricle down until it completely saturates the market.

Already companies are trialling internet streamed television. It will change everything. Traditional television advertisng will disappear as adverts could be skipped as all content would just be downloaded. Instead I believe we will see Coca Cola and the like buying production houses - "this program is bought to you by Coca -Cola" and product placement will reach ridiculous levels. It already happens to an extent - eg stella and channel 4 films.

I truly believe this is the future, whether or not it is a good thing though, only time will tell.

The great innovators/early adaptors are the Porn industry.

If they get involved (as I recently read they've already done with the hand held play station) then it could see it become successful sooner.

Maybe it will be successful, but it could go the way of the laser disc.

It was just annoying to see the press push it like it was revelatory. Still, don't let the truth stand in the way of a good story.

Surely the porn industry latched onto the potential of the internet years ago?!

Regarding internet distribution my point is this: music became available free on the internet so corporations couldn't risk losing too much money so forsaked cannibalising their physical sales and legal downloads became available. Now films and TV shows are available for free on the internet so corporations wil have to react. They will and over the years internet content will become the norm possibly to the extent that traditional broadcast and physical formats could eventually die out.

Like I say it won't happen tommorow but try to imagine 20 years from now.

Perhaps I don't have as in depth a technical appreciation.

I suppose what I envisaged was an entirely wireless internet connection i.e. no need to use phone connection with low subscription cost to a media centre, recording broadcasts, accessing new film and music releases instantaneously.

A limited storage life in the case of films. Surely there could be algorythyms built in so that they would only last for a limited time (this tape will self destruct in five seconds type of thing)

It's just about cost of the equipment and then quality of the format. Then backwards compatability. The technology will be there soon enough. But there will still be die-hards using vinyl and perhaps even getting misty eyed over DVD. Then there'll be the likes of me moaning about all of my old stuff being obsolete.

Ha ha, just remember nothing is obsolete until YOU stop using it!

Thanks Robbie

When it's not broke, don't fix it.

When it is broke, who'll fix it?

A lot of stuff isn't built to last - and with fast moving technology, there's some merit in that.

But what happens if I have a system crash?? I could lose photos of loved ones etc. Not owning an I-pod I've heard others talk about problems with losing stuff.

There'll always be problems with a copy of information on disc and how that can be physically damaged, but when it's lost in a machine - imagine how much steam will be coming out of your ears then?

Perhaps I'm just a bit of a luddite?

Its all very well talking 'bluesky' but its the big companies you need to watch out for...
EG http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=27426
sony has been quietly 'taking over' your PC...

If it wasnt for them manically looking for their profits, and not the interests of the customers, the world would be a lot better...

and also SKY is looking to make more buyouts - http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/article/ds25702.html
http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/article/ds25279.html

At least Jessops has realised people still like 'real photos' so you can take your camer's memory card to them, and they will produce 'granny-friendly' photos!! :):)

Foneman

There's plenty of food for thought there. I suppose we could be complacent and hope that the Monopolies and Mergers Commision would prevent it being against the Public interest, but you can't guarantee it.

As regards the Sony stuff - A long time ago I had an idea of setting up a website dedicated to outing companies that took the mick out of consumers. An opportunity for a broad side if you will.

Anyway having no money, technical knowledge, appreciation of how to make any money out of it. It died a death!

There should be something that's done that reaches outside of this forum.

I don't want to sound like someone from the "Ragged Trousered Philanthropists"
but the world would be a better place if angry individuals did something.

And that doesn't include giving Nicky Campbell the excuse to shout on BBC.

Truth is, the world is becoming more chaotic (in the scientific sense) with so many sources and so many consumers, that many versions of the same thing can survive together.
Even thirty years ago <Adopts Obi-wan voice> during the Betamax/vhs wars, Sony didn't "lose" the war, their profits continued. Betamax "won" in the usa and the system evolved into a newsgathering format that lasted up into the digital age.
Perception of these things varies, dependant on your viewpoint.
Chances are that all the competing technologies will find a market, but it may not be the market that it was originally designed for. E.G. Sony's Minidisk format was intended to be the "next" Floppy Disk for computer storage but ended up as the "new" Walkman.
But back to the original subject - I think Bill Gates is basically wrong (but he may know that, the statement being made for commercial reasons) because who - knowing computers at all, would trust their collection (of anything - Tunes, Pictures, films) to a hard disk? When we have hard disks (or the equivalent) that are truly fail safe - then it might happen.
But even then there will be a large part of the population of this planet for whom such things would only be dreamt of - for the forseeable future.