First there was Betamax vs VHS. Then there was DVD-RAM vs DVD-R vs DVD+R. And the bitter scrap between DVD-Audio and SACD continues to retard the public's adoption of next-generation music formats. Yet now it seems all but certain that once again the arrival of an eagerly awaited new technology, high definition DVD, is going to be blighted by industry feuding.
Two different, technologically incompatible camps have now defiantly set their separate stalls out as the high definition disc format of the future. In the red corner there's 'HD-DVD', while in the blue corner (rather aptly) there's 'Blu-ray'. Each format has its own legion of supporters, and each claims to be the best for the job. Yet all you as a consumer want to know is which one to buy, right? Ah, if only it were that simple…
What hi-def means
First, let's just clear up exactly what 'high definition on a DVD' means in technology terms. Basically it's all about storage capacity. Recording films in high definition (be it the '720p' 720-line format or the '1080i' 1080-line format) simply takes up much more storage space than recording them in standard definition. This means there's no way you could fit a full-length feature film in high definition on the standard DVD discs we're familiar with today - hence the race to develop a new, much higher capacity disc format.
Given that extra capacity is the main starting point for this next-gen disc format, it would seem that Blu-ray has an early advantage. For while the HD-DVD camp now produces discs capable of handling 30GB (compare that to around 9.4 GB on a standard DVD), recently developed dual-layer Blu-ray discs are reckoned to hold around 54GB. However, HD-DVD proponents assure us that higher capacity HD-DVD discs will appear soon.
Another key factor with any new technology is backwards compatibility with previous technologies. In this respect HD-DVD initially held a lead, with one of its founding tenets being that HD-DVD players would all also handle today's standard DVDs. However, Panasonic, Philips, Pioneer and Sony (among others) have now also shown Blu-ray products also capable of handling CDs and DVDs.
Technology vs cost
Putting all the technical evidence together, there seems to be a slight consensus around the industry that Blu-ray is a marginally more sophisticated technology than HD-DVD. But don't forget that it's not always the best format on paper that wins; Betamax was widely held to be superior to VHS, but we all know who won that particular scrap.
Perhaps the small matter of cost will give us something decisive. In terms of disc manufacturing costs, HD-DVD stole an initial march for the simple reason that the process of making an HD-DVD disc apparently requires minimal - and so less expensive - changes to the process of making current DVDs. Blu-ray discs, on the other hand, require all-new production facilities that initially at least could make them more expensive to manufacture and therefore buy.
Blu-ray supporters are now aggressively trying to dismiss this idea though, claiming that various recent technological developments meant that actually Blu-ray discs should cost no more to make than current DVDs by the time the format actually launches later this year.
And don't forget that the 'real' costs of buying the various disc formats is skewed by the fact that Blu-ray discs can store more than HD-DVD, potentially reducing the amount of Blu-ray discs you would have to buy.
When it comes to the cost of HD-DVD and Blu-ray players, HD-DVD currently does seem to have quite an advantage. Toshiba HD-DVD players just announced for America are going to start at around $499, while the first Blu-ray players are looking set to be much more expensive - probably starting at around $800. Of course, this situation could change as Blu-ray production is ramped up to HD-DVD levels.
Sometimes with technology the winners turn out simply to be the first manufacturers to cross the finish line and actually get a product onto shop shelves. And here HD-DVD has a slim advantage. Initially the HD-DVD camp had targeted launching in the US before Christmas, but apparently due to a lack of software support from the film industry, the first US HD-DVD players aren't now due until at least this month (March). This still gives HD-DVD breathing space before the first Blu-ray players appear in (supposedly) May - but we doubt that two months will really be long enough to make a real difference.
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Porn and politics
In fact, there's a very good chance that none of the issues we've covered so far will ultimately play any part in how HD-DVD and Blu-ray fare in the coming months and years. In the end, each format's success will probably boil down to politics; in other words, who backs them. For instance, it's widely accepted that the main reason VHS saw off Betamax was that the porn industry embraced VHS as its format of choice!
So you can bet that both next-gen DVD camps are fighting tooth and nail to earn the support of the big movie studios who'll be providing the high definition movies for the HD players to play.
As things stand today, the two technologies' main backers look like this. On the HD-DVD side, Toshiba is leading the way, but enjoys heavyweight support on the hardware side from the likes of NEC, Intel and, crucially, Microsoft. When it comes to movie studios, Universal, Warner and Paramount have all said they'll release HD-DVD discs.
As for Blu-ray, its main hardware supporters are the mighty Sony, Philips, Pioneer, Dell, Apple and Sharp, while movie studios promising Blu-ray discs are Sony, 20th Century Fox, Disney, Warner, Paramount and Lionsgate (Warner and Paramount are thus currently supporting both formats).
Blu-ray's larger following with the film studios bodes well for it - especially as some studios have expressed admiration for Blu-ray's allegedly more robust anti-piracy measures. In fact, until Microsoft finally pledged its allegiance to HD-DVD at the end of last year, industry insiders were really beginning to wonder if HD-DVD could survive. But with Microsoft on board HD-DVD now seems set to enjoy the same sort of guaranteed massive household penetration via PCs (and an HD-DVD drive for the Xbox 360 announced at the recent Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas) that Blu-ray will likely achieve thanks to the PS3.
So who'll win?
If what you've read so far has left you no clearer about what format to buy into, then we're sorry to say that's precisely the effect we intended. The simple fact is that both formats now look set to exist together seemingly indefinitely. Which means that, since not all film studios are backing both formats, you could well be faced with the very real, very ugly prospect of having to buy players for both technologies if you want to enjoy all your favourite movies in glorious high definition.
Of course, faced with such an expensive, untidy and frankly just plain nonsensical situation, it should hardly surprise the AV industry if cheesed-off and confused consumers elect to vote with their feet and don't buy into ANY HD disc format until the format war is over.
Thankfully, though, there just might be a small glimmer of hope on the horizon. For while Blu-ray and HD-DVD aren't compatible with each other, it appears that it might be technologically possible (though apparently it's not easy) to make a single DVD player that can handle both formats. Already one or two manufacturers (most notably Samsung) not so closely connected politically to the two technologies are starting to talk about creating dual players able to handle both formats.
If and when such players appear, then perhaps you'll get the chance to vote with your feet in a more satisfying way by ignoring single-format-only players from the royalties-driven companies who created this war in favour of dual-format players from companies more interested in producing the sort of unrestrictive products punters actually want. Just a thought…
Who supports what
Key hardware supporters
HD-DVD: Toshiba, NEC, Intel, Microsoft
Blu-ray: Sony, Philips, Apple, Dell, TDK, Sharp, Samsung, Pioneer
Key film studio supporters
HD-DVD: Universal, Warner, Paramount, HBO Video, New Line
Blu-ray: Sony, Fox, Paramount, Warner, Lionsgate, Disney
Film titles already announced
HD-DVD: Aeon Flux, Batman Begins, The Bourne Supremacy, Jarhead, The Matrix, U2 Rattle And Hum
Blu-ray: Fantastic Four, Hitch, Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle, Lords Of War, T2: Judgment Day, Reservoir Dogs, Total Recall
